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Forrest

Hit or Miss Rate

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I’m curious; I know ordering FOs is a hit and miss proposition, but I get the feeling that I’m missing more than I should. If I define a “hit” as a FO you either order more of, or are still using a year after you first get it, what would you say your hit rate is. I don’t think I’m doing much better than 15%, maybe 20% at best. Of course if you loved them all you'd have to stop ordering new ones and where is the fun in that.

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I know I can be a real dummy at things and times and right now I feel just like one as I don't understand what you are asking....??

 

Are you asking what fragrances are hits for myself personally or at the shops I sell to?    Is that what you mean?

 

Trappeur

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I would consider by the word "hit" means a fragrance that is a good thrower for the wax that I use.

 

Trappeur

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Maybe Forrest is trying to say how many oils you re-order compared to NOT re-ordering after your first impression with them?

 

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2 hours ago, Trappeur said:

I would consider by the word "hit" means a fragrance that is a good thrower for the wax that I use.

 

Trappeur

Yes, but you would need to like the fragrance enough to want to continue using it. 

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Lately my success rate is a big fat ZERO.  My most recent round of failure was the WSP sale from which I was the happy recipient of 6 duds, one decent blender, and one maybe I'll re-order for me because I like it but it will never sell.   With those numbers, you're beating me by a mile.  

 

ETA:  I take that back.  I plan to order CS new Fall Leaves.  It was nice.  So, there's one.

Edited by bfroberts
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Great topic.  Been wondering this myself, as I feel like most of the sample FO's I test are "misses."  And only maybe 1/3 of the ones that make it into wax are keepers (easy to wick, good cold and hot throw, mass appeal).  Many of them WE like, but if they don't sell, we discontinue them.  So I'd guess that only 15% of the fos we order make it into our line.  

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11 hours ago, bfroberts said:

Lately my success rate is a big fat ZERO.  My most recent round of failure was the WSP sale from which I was the happy recipient of 6 duds, one decent blender, and one maybe I'll re-order for me because I like it but it will never sell.   With those numbers, you're beating me by a mile.  

 

ETA:  I take that back.  I plan to order CS new Fall Leaves.  It was nice.  So, there's one.

Maybe we need a Hit or Miss thread as a follow on to the Sale thread. If we documented the misses in a thread people could refer back to it before ordering next time.

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Unfortunately, having a list may or may not be accurate.  What one may consider a hit/miss will vary for another.  May also depend on the product it's being used in.   I have some fragrances that are good in on product but not in another.  Mind you, I don't make candles but soap and other B&B.  Some of the fragrances I purchase will be great in say a scrub, perfume or bath bomb but not so much in soap.   But, it may also help of there is a review by product perhaps?

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1 hour ago, Shari said:

Unfortunately, having a list may or may not be accurate.  What one may consider a hit/miss will vary for another.  May also depend on the product it's being used in.   I have some fragrances that are good in on product but not in another.  Mind you, I don't make candles but soap and other B&B.  Some of the fragrances I purchase will be great in say a scrub, perfume or bath bomb but not so much in soap.   But, it may also help of there is a review by product perhaps?

I agree Shari. We would have to say what we used the FO in for this to have value. I would hope the people on this board know that everyone has different taste, and that they wouldn’t base their buying decision solely on one person rejecting an FO. But it would be nice to have something other than the suppliers website’s five star rating and glowing reviews to help us decide which FOs to try.

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4 hours ago, Shari said:

Unfortunately, having a list may or may not be accurate.  What one may consider a hit/miss will vary for another.  May also depend on the product it's being used in.   I have some fragrances that are good in on product but not in another.  Mind you, I don't make candles but soap and other B&B.  Some of the fragrances I purchase will be great in say a scrub, perfume or bath bomb but not so much in soap.   But, it may also help of there is a review by product perhaps?

This in spades.

 

early on, while still learning intracies or candle making, I had a near perfect miss rate. Once I figured out how the wick influenced the burn and HT all bets were off. I pulled out some old fragrances that just plain would not throw, and now I can usually make a really nice throwing candle from it.

 

 

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What I love is mostly the misses and by that I mean fo's that just don't sell well!  You can't go by what you love as a hit if you're planning to sell. Different areas will be different for sales as well so a listing here may not work?   If you're making for yourself/family then absolutely go by what you or they love.  I date my candles and melts for sale.  If I look at what I need to make (I keep a stock on hand) those are the oils I consider a hit and what I reorder.  Ones that are really slow or no movers never get reordered. 

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1 hour ago, TallTayl said:

early on, while still learning intracies or candle making, I had a near perfect miss rate. Once I figured out how the wick influenced the burn and HT all bets were off. I pulled out some old fragrances that just plain would not throw, and now I can usually make a really nice throwing candle from it.

I often wonder about all those FOs I blamed for what turned out to be my mistaken assumption that candle making is easy

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The first couple of sets of FO's I got were really expensive and disappointing. 85% were difficult for me to even handle diluted. The rest were ok, in terms of what I was going for.  Recently I've found my favorites, that might make a cohesive collection.  I'm still learning what works. But as my SO put it, I'm in R and D, so I'm going to be throwing a lot of stuff at the wall to see what sticks.  

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On 8/8/2018 at 6:41 PM, bfroberts said:

Lately my success rate is a big fat ZERO.  My most recent round of failure was the WSP sale from which I was the happy recipient of 6 duds, one decent blender, and one maybe I'll re-order for me because I like it but it will never sell.   With those numbers, you're beating me by a mile.  

 

ETA:  I take that back.  I plan to order CS new Fall Leaves.  It was nice.  So, there's one.

Which ones did you get from Wsp?

I have some of the best luck with their oils in a variety of waxes 

for me all the flaming I ordered are duds....I should of known better to only get a couple and see before ordering a dozen 😂

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I think some of the reason for my low success rate is that I always seem to order about 30% "what was I thinking" FOs. Those are the ones that look good on the website, but I should have known better. For example WSP's Pistachio & Magnolia was a what was I have done preliminary testing on six from my most recent WSP order; three were hits, two need further testing and one seemed to have no fragrance at all. That is at least a 50% rate, perhaps I am ordering smarter.

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7 hours ago, moonshine said:

Which ones did you get from Wsp?

I have some of the best luck with their oils in a variety of waxes 

for me all the flaming I ordered are duds....I should of known better to only get a couple and see before ordering a dozen 😂

 

Jelly Donut, Green Apple, Honey Apple - all have little to no throw

Clove - decent mixer, not the best clove I've had, but it'll do for my needs

Tabac & Leather - I did like this one, decent HT, probably won't sell worth a flip but I do like it

Pink Berry Mimosa - one dimensional, generic berry scent, probably won't use.  My daughter picked this one.
Lemongrass something or other - very light. Doesn't stick in CP, too light even for a room spray
Caribbean Coconut - weak, not much coconut

 

I've had good luck with most of the scents I've purchased from Flaming.  It's crazy how it happens like that.  

 

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1 hour ago, bfroberts said:

 

Jelly Donut, Green Apple, Honey Apple - all have little to no throw

Clove - decent mixer, not the best clove I've had, but it'll do for my needs

Tabac & Leather - I did like this one, decent HT, probably won't sell worth a flip but I do like it

Pink Berry Mimosa - one dimensional, generic berry scent, probably won't use.  My daughter picked this one.
Lemongrass something or other - very light. Doesn't stick in CP, too light even for a room spray
Caribbean Coconut - weak, not much coconut

 

I've had good luck with most of the scents I've purchased from Flaming.  It's crazy how it happens like that.  

 

I agree on Flamings ,I also have great luck with their oils in my Paraffin blend ,along with Aztec ,C source & Candlewic. I do have good throw with maybe half from WSP .Lol the Jelly donut is awsome in my wax blend for melt. I have not made any candles as of yet .

It is funny how most scents perform differently for all of us .

 

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1 hour ago, bfroberts said:

Jelly Donut, Green Apple, Honey Apple - all have little to no throw

Jelly Donut performed really well in my palm wax melts, out of the 12+ scents i have done tests with so far only that one and a fairy garden/honeysuckle blend (best scent throw of all tested scents) i did have really good hot throw.

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@katmeltswax @ncraiders The jelly donut was OK-ish in my palm wax after a short cure, and I thought it would come along with a nice HT after a longer cure, but it's been about 2 weeks now and it hasn't improved enough.  Probably be fine in melts, which is what I'll do with the rest of my bottle.  I bought it because I wanted to do a layered "coffee & donuts" candle in palm wax, but my coffee FO is significantly stronger.  

 

I do use a few FO's from WSP that are great, but I obviously made some bad choices this time.  It's been one big round of testing bummers lately.

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7 minutes ago, bfroberts said:

@katmeltswax @ncraiders The jelly donut was OK-ish in my palm wax after a short cure, and I thought it would come along with a nice HT after a longer cure, but it's been about 2 weeks now and it hasn't improved enough.  Probably be fine in melts, which is what I'll do with the rest of my bottle.  I bought it because I wanted to do a layered "coffee & donuts" candle in palm wax, but my coffee FO is significantly stronger.  

 

I do use a few FO's from WSP that are great, but I obviously made some bad choices this time.  It's been one big round of testing bummers lately.

Sadly i have not been able to test in a candle as I am still wick testing for my 4" apothecary jars.  I have more than enough stilt to test in a candle when i get a wick narrowed down.  Hopefully it will perform as well for mr in the candle as it has in the melts.

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1 minute ago, ncraiders said:

Sadly i have not been able to test in a candle as I am still wick testing for my 4" apothecary jars.  I have more than enough stilt to test in a candle when i get a wick narrowed down.  Hopefully it will perform as well for mr in the candle as it has in the melts.

 

How's the testing coming along?  I've been trying to transition over to palm wax for my containers, and I've been testing wicks like crazy.  I haven't worked up to an apothecary jar yet.  I'm fooling around with status jars and tumblers.  I'm finding a lot of my scents seem to need an in-between size.  Frustrating as heck.

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2 minutes ago, bfroberts said:

 

How's the testing coming along?  I've been trying to transition over to palm wax for my containers, and I've been testing wicks like crazy.  I haven't worked up to an apothecary jar yet.  I'm fooling around with status jars and tumblers.  I'm finding a lot of my scents seem to need an in-between size.  Frustrating as heck.

So far my best wick for this jar currently is a dual CD-7  but I am only on burn 2 with said candle so i still need to test this one more.  If the wick continues to perform like it has this will be a good wick fingers crossed.

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